Contents include the following -
-Central Scoutings final rankings for both the top 30 North American Skaters and top 15 European Skaters (Complete with Photographs and statistics)
- First round mock draft
- Draft Overview.
This is going to be by far the most in depth and informative thing I've ever done in my life. If I put this type of effort into making the world a better place, well, it probably would be. Is there better information on the draft out there than what I'm going to provide? Yes but this shit is free, and nothing beats free.
Ok lets get started.
*Note, these photographs were NOT made by me. I don't want to take credit for something I didn't do so there it is.
Central Scouting Top 30 North American Skaters (Click images to view in full size)
Central Scouting top 15 European
Skaters
Mock Draft: The First Round
1. New York Islanders - C John Tavares, London (OHL) - Been mega hyped since day 1. Though Victor Hedman may be a better fit for the franchise long term, Garth Snow won't pass on the opportunity to add this scoring machine to his team. Lack of a defensive game and poor skating may hold him back from fulfilling potential. Other possibilities - Victor Hedman, Matt Duchene
2. Tampa Bay Lighting - D Victor Hedman, Modo (Sweden) - Big, Mobile, booming shot from the point. Hedman could stand to be more physical, suffers from lapses in concentration and lacks that intensity you want to see from your defensemen but his overall package of skills should see him be a perennial all star - even if he doesnt put it all together.
Other Possibilities: Matt Duchene
3. Colorado Avalanche - C Matt Duchene, Brampton (OHL) - Solidified his status as the third overall pick in this draft with an excellent playoff run. Duchene is the type of guy who can score a game tying goal, make an excellent play breaking up a scoring chance agains the next shift and scoring the go ahead goal right after that. Captain Material, cut from the same deck as Jonathan Towes, except hes an even better skater and has better hands. Other Possibilities: Victor Hedman, Evander Kane.
4. Atlanta Thrashers - LW Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Trima IK (Sweden) - MPS has bring-you-out-of-your-seat type speed and hands. The flash and dash player of this draft. He doesn't have a great shot and that will limit his goal scoring ability, but hes naturally more of a playmaker anyway, so that shouldn't really matter too much. Other Possibilities: Evander Kane, Jared Cowen
5. Los Angeles Kings - LW/RW Evander Kane, Vancouver (WHL) - Evander Kane is one of the more intriguing, yet the most risky player in the top 10. He's got a really nice projectable frame and excellent hands around the net but he needs to improve his skating, bulk up, and tie all of his tools together. Hes a really, really talented player but hes a project.
Other Possibilities: MPS, Brayden Schenn, Trade.
6. Phoenix Coyotes - D Jared Cowen, Spokane (WHL) - May have gone higher of not for tearing his ACL midway through the year. Cowen is your classic shut down Canadian defenseman. At 6'5" 205 pounds (and still growing), Cowen looks to be a bigger, meaner version of Robyn Regher, which would make him one hell of a defenseman.
Other Possibilities: Brayden Schenn, Oliver Ekman Larsson, Dimitri Kulikov
7. Toronto Maple Leafs - C/LW Brayden Schenn, Brandon (WHL) - Younger Brother of Last years first round pick Luke Schenn and we know how much Brian Burke loves his family connections (Traded up to get both Sedins in Vancouver, re united the Niedemeyers in Anaheim.) Schenn is the best two way player in this draft - He could still stand to improve at both ends of the ice but he figures to be a 70 point center who can shut down the opposing teams top line as well as possibly wear the C on his chest (If his brother doesn't.)
Other Possibilties: Jared Cowen, Trade.
8. Dallas Stars - D Dimitri Kulikov, Drummonville (QMJHL) - I personally do NOT like players, especially defensemen from the "Q" but Kulikov is the real deal. Hes equally adept at both ends of the ice and skates with seemingly little effort. There were times during the memorial cup where he struggled a bit but this was his first full year in Canadian Junior hockey so chances are he was gassed due to the schedule, plus those teams in the Memorial Cup are pretty good. He has Sergei Zubov upside. Other Possibilites: Oliver Ekman Larsson, Scott Glennie, Jared Cowen.
9. Ottawa Senators - D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Leksand (Sweden) - I know that Bryan Murrary's staff has scouting OEL heavily and really like him. Oliver Ekman-Larrson is a smallish, offensive defenseman who some believe has higher offensive potential than Victor Hedman (I say bull shit.) that said, he probably has Brian Rafalski type upside, which is not a bad thing at all. Him and Karlsson on the PP for a decade would look really good for the Sens.
Other possibilites:Dimitri Kulikov, Scott Glennie, Nazem Kadri.
10. Edmonton Oilers - C/W Scott Glennie, Brandon (WHL) - The Speedy linemate of Brayden Schenn (7th overall to the leafs in my mock) also has game to go along with a higher offensive ceiling than Schenn. Glennie has the type of top gear that even the best defensemen in the NHL wouldn't feel comfortable going up against. Along with his speed he has a real nose for the net , great hands and is improving on setting up goals. He plays a high octane and sometimes wreckless game, which may subject him to many injuries in the NHL (Ovechkin mentality with out the frame to hold it up) so thats a legit concern here but make no mistake, Glennie can flat out play, The second coming of Geoff Sanderson. Other Possibilites: Oliver Ekman Larsson, Zack Kassian, Jordan Schroder
11. Nashville Predators - D John Moore, Chicago (USHL) - There isn't a less heralded player ranked in the top 15 than Moore. This smooth skating defenseman put up very good points in the USHL which is a pretty tough league to score in and reminds some people of John Carlsson (Caps 1st pick last year.) While the Predators' system isn't starving for defensemen, Moore is the type of guy who they can draft this year and wait on for 3-4 years before making significant contributions.
Other Possibilities: Zack Kassian, Ryan Ellis, OEL.
12. Minnesota Wild - RW Jordan Schroeder, Minnesota (NCAA) - 5'8" but stop on a dime fast, Schroeder is the quintessential forward for the "new" NHL. If he's available I don't think that it's possible that the Wild go in a different direction - They've made a promise to their fans that they're going to play more exciting hockey going forward and there is no way that they will pass on a guy who is not only a home town boy, but also a perfect fit for their future plans.
Other Possibilities: Scott Glennie, Chris Kreider.
13. Buffalo Sabres - D Ryan Ellis, Windsor (OHL) - The Sabres have been looking for their replacement for Brian Campbell and Ellis would be a great candidate for that role. He QB'd the PP for team Canada in the WJC's and did an marvelous job (had a fantastic tournament all around) and there are scouts who have said that he is the best offensive defenseman that they've seen in over 20 years of scouting Canadian Junior hockey. He lacks size, speed and overall defensive polish but his offensive potential is too good to pass up.
Other Possibilities: Zack Kassian, Scott Glennie.
14. Florida Panthers - C Louis Leblanc, Omaha (USHL) - Leblanc eschewed the QMJHL to play in the USHL in order to keep his NCAA Eligibility. The Harvard Bound forward has a very solid regular season in the USHL, putting up one point shy of a point a game before going bonkers in the playoffs and really rasing his draft stock.
Other Possibilities: Simon Despres, John Moore, Zack Kassian
15. Anaheim Ducks - LW Zack Kassian, Peterborough (OHL) - Anaheim seems to shift towards drafting big bodies with skill and Kassian more than fits the bill. At 6'3" 210 pounds Kassian has a really strong, NHL ready frame and a tough style that is coveted by many teams (and may lead to him being taken higher than this.) He needs to work on his skating and there are questions as to how high his offensive upside is but if he puts it all together, we're talking about a tougher version of Brendan Morrow.
Other Possibilities: Ryan Ellis, Scott Glennie, Chris Kreider
16. Columbus Blue Jackets - C Jacob Josefson, Djurgarden (Sweden) - Argueably a top 10 talent, Josefson falls to #16 in my mock. He's not a spectacular player, infact, he doesn't have one single part of his game that really stands out. But what he does bring to the table is a very steady two way game, good skating ability and the potential to be a very good 60-70 point 2nd line center. He's not the type of kid you get excited about on draft day but there are going to be a few teams that pick ahead of the Blue Jackets who will look back at this draft and say "Man, I really wish we took that guy."
Other Possibilites: Louis Leblanc, Nazem Kadri, David Runblad
17. St Louis Blues - C Peter Holland, Guelph (OHL) - When his game is on, he's extremely tough to handle. His skill set is extremely impressive, there aren't many guys who are as big as him who move as fast as he does, and there aren't many players who shoot like he does. The problem with Holland is that if you see him once you'll come away thinking (There is no way he isn't a top 5 pick) but then with every subsequent viewing, you start to realize why he is ranked where hes ranked. I Know the Blues really like him and hes more than a nice consolation prize for barely missing out on Josefson (whom he may end up a better player than anyway.)
Other Possibilites: Jacob Josefson, Kyle Palmieri, Simon Despres
18. Montreal Canadiens - C Nazem Kadri, London (OHL) - Big faller in this draft due to strength concerns but he won't fall pass the Habs at 18. While he's not the biggest or strongest guy in the draft, he has been a money player in the OHL playoffs the last two years, he even outperformed John Tavares this past year in the second season. Kadri grew up a Habs fan, and the Habs will have a chance to make a dream come true for this kid infront of the home town crowd, sounds too good for them to pass up.
Other Possibilites: Simon Despres, Louis Leblanc
19. New York Rangers - C Kyle Palmieri, U-18 (USNTDP) - Palmieri played on the real life drama known as the US National Development team Program that saw him get kicked off the team at the end of the year when the higher ups of the program decided to make an example out of him for refusing to rat out his teammates for violating team policy. Palmieri has since been working out on his own and is preparing to enroll in Notre Dame in the fall. What Palmieri brings on the ice is a ton of leadership (as well as off the ice, he took the fall for his teammates), great intenisity, strong skating, and clutch goal scoring ability. Palmieri is a safe bet to make the NHL and reminds many scouts of a young Chris Drury with Zach Parise type upside.
Other Possibilites: Landon Ferraro, Chris Kreider, Zack Kassian
20. Calgary Flames - LW Carter Ashton, Lethbridge (WHL) - Father Brent played 15 years in the NHL and had a very solid career. The younger Ashton is even more talented than his dad and potted 30 goals in the WHL this year. He was the lone prospect at the combine to complete the entire VO2 test, which is beyond impressive. His upside isn't that high and there are worries that he has already peaked as a prospect but even if he doesn't reach top 6 status, he'll still be a very good third line player.
Other Possibilites: David Runblad, Calvin Dehann, Landon Ferraro
21. Philadelphia Flyers - C Chris Kreider, Andover (USHS) - If there is going to be a buzz player 48 hours before the draft, It will be Chris Kreider. Kreider is your typical late bloomer, he wasn't on the radar of most scouts two years ago but has really shot up the rankings, wedeging himself for sure into the bottom half of the first round, though his upside may cause him to go even higher. Kreider is the best skater in the draft and has good hockey sense and hands to go along with it but he hasn't been exposed to top competition. He still has a year of HS eligibility left but hes a pretty good bet to end up at Boston College in the fall. The Flyers may be reluctant to take Kreider due to the fact that hes going the NCAA route (they didn't like the way JVR's development went) but the prospect of having Kreider and JVR play on the same line one day is too great for the Flyers to pass up.
Other possibilites: David Runblad, Nick Leddy.
22 Vancouver Canucks - LW Landon Ferraro, Red Deer (WHL) - If the last name sounds familar, thats because Landon is the Son of former NHL all star Ray Ferraro. Landon plays the same type of game as his pops but hes an even better skater and has more of a physical edge. He scored more than 1/5th of his teams goals this past season (37) and would have had more than 50 had he played on a good team. His slight frame and abrasive style may subject him to injuries in his career (see: Gilbert Brule) but the Canucks are thirsting for Young offensive talent and Ferraro fits the bill.
Other Possibilites: Kyle Palmieri, Chris Kreider, Jeremy Morin
23 New Jersey Devils - D David Runblad, Skelletea (Sweden) - The Devils have gotten away from what once made them so successful and will take a step in the right direction towards getting back there. Runblad is a top 15 talent depending on who you talk to but will slip in the draft because hes a bit of an unknown. The Devils need depth everywhere in their system but they're extremely thin on D (Both on the farm and with the big club), so they'll go with Runblad.
Other Possibilites: Calvin De hann, Nick Leddy
24. Washington Capitals - D Calvin De Hann, Oshawa (OHL) - This would be the 2nd straight year that the Caps would be taking a defenseman if they choose to go this route. De Hann is the perfect compliment to a guy like Carlsson in the future. Calvin De Hann has been compared a bit to 2008 first rounder Michael Del Zotto, minus a little bit of the hockey sense.
Other possibilites: Nick Leddy, Jeremy Morin
25. Boston Bruins - C/LW Jeremy Morin, U- 18 (USNTDP) - Morin was on the same team as the aforementioned Kyle Palmieri and Morin is the more talented of the two. Jeremy Morin is by far the best pure shooter in the draft (Yes, including Tavares) and presents a really intriguing package standing at 6'1" and a stout 190 lbs to go along with fantastic hands. There are attitude concerns with Morin as well as consistancy issues and questions about how well he'll be able to adapt to a quicker, more physical games as opposed to his peers. Morin will play for the Kitchner Rangers of the OHL next year.
Other Possibilites: Nick Leddy, Stefon Elliot
26. New York Islanders - D Tim Erixon, Skelleftea (Sweden) - Tim is the son of former NHL'er Jan Erixon. Tim Erixon is a very steady two way defenseman who may one day remind Islander fans of Kenny Johnsson.
Other Possibilites: Nick Leddy, Zack Budish, Simon Despres
27. Carolina Hurricanes - LW Toni Rajala, IIves (Finland) - I get the feeling that someone will take a chance on this you tube senesation in the first round and there is no better fit for Rajala than the Carolina Hurricanes. Rajala is a guy who has the upside of a Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson but is undersized and to put it frankly, has the body of a 12 year old girl. That said, his skills are undeniable and if he puts it together, he will be electric in the Hurricanes system.
Other Possibilites: Drew Shore, Tomas Tatar, Jeremy Morin
28. Chicago Blackhawks - C Drew Shore, U18 (USNTDP) - Another player to come out of that infamous program. Drew Shore is basically Peter Holland with American citizenship. When he brings it, hes great but when he doesn't, it really makes you wonder if hes playing hockey because he likes it or because he can make alot of money doing it because hes good at it. At this spot in the draft and the Blackhawks need for centers in the farm, hes a great pick. Shore will be playing at the University of Denver next year.
Other Possibilites: Zack Budish, Tomas Tatar
29. Detroit Red Wings - LW Carl Klingberg, Frolunda U20 (Sweden) - Big shocker here: Detroit goes european. Klingberg is a high energy player with great size and a developing offensive game. He can turn into a very dynamic first line player but is a sure bet to make it to the NHL as a third liner if it doesnt work out that way. Knowing Detroit, I expect him to become a consistant 35-35 player in no time.
Other Possibilites: Tomas Tatar, Zack Budish
30 Pittsburgh Penguins - C/W Zack Budish, Edina HS (MSHS) - Pittsburgh can afford to take a kid who won't be ready for a few years who possesses tremendous upside, which is exactly what Zack Budish embodies. Budish missed his entire senior season after tearing his ACL playing football, but he put up excellent strength numbers at the NHL prospect combine a few weeks ago and already has an NHL ready frame. Budish will be playing at the University of Minnesota next year where he will continue to hone is skills.
Other Possibilites: Tomas Tatar, Toni Rajala
2009 NHL Draft Overview
The 2009 NHL draft has been pegged as the deepest draft since the 2003 draft which saw every single player drafted in the first round except one play at least one (Hugh Jessiman, 12th overall NYR) game in the NHL. Every single player in the top 10 except for one has played atleast 200 NHL games in their careers so far, the lone player who hasn't reached that plateau yet is Andrei Kostitsyn and hes only 14 games away from getting there, which he will achieve early next season.
The 2003 draft also produced players like Shea Weber, David Backes, Patrick O'Sullivan, Lee Stempniak, Patrice Bergeron and Joe Pavelski in the later rounds. All in all, the 2003 NHL draft produced more than half a rounds worth of first line, first pairing, or #1 goaltending talent, which is unheard of. That is what will seperate it from the 2009 draft.
The 2009 NHL draft is similar to the 2003 draft in the sense that it is very, very deep but the depth falls in the range of picks 20-60, teams will be getting guys in the middle and end of the 2nd round this year that they would have drafted late in the first round last year and in the middle of the first round in 2007. The close to sure bet top shelf talent is not plentiful, however there are a few guys who have the potential to become sure fire go to players outside of the top three. Evander Kane has argueably the highest ceiling of any forward in the draft, which has him pegged to go top 5 in the draft for sure but his lack of foot speed and overall rawness make him a very, very risky pick especially when you consdier that there are players who are more of a "sure thing", like Brayden Schenn who will be available in the same range. Chris Kreider has the size (6'2" 195) speed and offensive potential to make him a legit first line scorer but New England Prep School hockey is not what it once was was when it produced the likes of Brian Leetch, Bill Guerin, Jeremy Roneick and Tony Amonte. When you consider that Krieder will be attending Boston College, who has produced little produtive NHL talent at the NHL level under BC Head Coach Jerry York (Brian Gionta and thats it), it makes Krieder a very risky pick, even late in the first round. Then there is Minnesota High School player Zach Budish, who missed his entire senior season due to an ACL injury. Budish was a for sure first round pick prior to the injury even though he played in a public HS league because he also dominated prospect camps and tournaments against his peers. Budish is slated to go to the University of Minnesota which has produced a ton of good talent so the worry of his development being stunned there.
Then there are guys who will fall for what ever reason into the lap of some lucky (or unlucky) team who were ranked much higher than they went. The Biggest faller will most likely be Nazem Kadri, who was for most of the year projected to be a top 10 pick. Kadri's strength is a major weakness to the point where it will severely limit his effectiveness at the next level. Kadri will most likely be taken in the top 20, but don't be surprised if he falls out of the first round all together. Peter Holland was ranked as the 9th best North American skater when ISS did their mid term rankings and fell all the way to 19th in the final rankings. As I mentioned before, Holland has the potential to come out of his draft as one of the 5 best players from this years crop but he needs to improve his battle level and find a way to light a fire under his ass every time he gets out there. One big issue with Holland is that he seems to be satisfied with giving 75% if he pots 3 goals in the process, he could score 4 if he gave 100.
But of course, this draft has three highly ranked players who are are pretty much asured to become big time NHL players. John Tavares has been one of the most hyped prospects in quite some time (OK, since 2005.) Tavares has been on top for so long that its become the "it" thing to bash him over the past few months instead of focus on all the good things that he does which made him the top player in this years class to begin with. Tavares in my opinion, is a lock to become a first line player who will produce at least 70 points a year. There are however, two things with Tavares that will keep him from being a go to franchise type...
1. Footspeed - He can improve on this and you see players improve on this all the time, but even with his instincts and natural goal scoring ability, Tavares will not be able to get behind defensemen and take off in the NHL like he has in the OHL, which will lower his goal total pretty substantially.
2. Producing when it counts - Ok this is a little unfair since its such a small sample size, but Tavares was virtually invisible in the last 2 games of the World Junior Championships and was the 5th best player on his team during the OHL playoffs. Great players take over when they're needed, Tavares hasn't done that (yet)
Victor Hedman aces the eyeball test. 6'6" 230 pound defensemen who skate like Jay Bouwmeester and shoot like Chris Pronger do not come around often. Hedman has drawn comparisons to those two as well as Zdeno Chara and whats scary is that he is further ahead of all three of them at the same age and has a higher ceiling than any of them did. Hedman's faults are one that may make him subject to alot of Grief as the years go along - For a big guy, hes awfully soft. I'm sorry but if I was 6'6" I'd be trucking everyone when ever the opportunity presented it self and sometimes, I might even go out of my way to do it to send a message. He doesn't have that "edge" that great defensemen usually posses and I'm not sure thats something that you can develop over time. If it is and he does find it, then look the hell out.
Matt Duchene will be, in my opinion, the best player to come out of this draft. He has all the tools you're looking for in a forward (Great speed, excellent shot, ridiculous hands and very good vision) and hes also a pretty good player in his own end. Duchene was on the top pair penalty kill for the Brampton Battalion and also wore the "A" despite being a draft eligible player and playing on a team with guys who were sometimes two years older. Duchene also improved his stock by scoring a key hat trick in a clinching game to send the Brampton Battalion to the OHL finals for the first time in franchise history. When I watch him play, he reminds me so much of Jonathan Towes with the way he handles the puck and the way he can shoot it, but Duchenes got even better wheels. Duchene doesn't come with out his faults thought. Duchene missed time twice during the year with two different injuries and also got hurt again in the playoffs (though he played through this.) I'm not ready to call him injury prone but its something to take note of. Also, alot of the things that were being said about Matt Duchene sound awfully similar to what was being said about Stephen Weiss during his draft year and while Weiss hasn't been a complete and utter failure, he hasn't become half of what was expected of him.
On the surface, the 2009 NHL draft looks to be a pretty good draft, but its no way near the monumental draft that it was once being hyped to be. Who knows, maybe six years from now we'll be looking back at this draft and talking about it the same way we talk about the 2003 draft (Yes, no one expected Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, Richards or Weber to become that good) but in the end what I expect to see is a hand full of guys become very good players, a bunch of others to become serviceable NHL'ers and the majority of the lot to fizzle out.
But hey, isnt that what happens every year?
