Saturday, November 28, 2009

Strip it down Slats!

Ok so before I get crazy heres how it is right now...

- The Rangers are in 10th place in the east, in a virtual tie for the 8th spot.
- The Rangers, since their 7 game win streak, have the worst record in the NHL
- The Rangers are only 6 points better than Minnesota with 1 more game played from being the 3rd worst team in the NHL

Yeah so based off of the facts I've listed above, most people would say "It's still early in the season" and they're right.

Lets take a look at the positives...

- The Rangers are scoring more than they did last year. Good.
- The Rangers Power Play is much better than it was last year. Great
- Despite being rookies, Michael Del Zotto, Matt Gilroy and Artem Anisimov have played well. Fantastic.

And now the negatives.

- The Rangers support players blow. This has nothing to do with secondary scoring, but more to do with the lack of players who do those little things that lead to goals
- The Rangers are too small and soft. No one can throw a hit that hurts or win a battle along the boards. The forecheck has been inconsistent.
- The team defense sucks. This is by far the biggest problem for this team. I expected there to be struggles with a new system and all, but I didn't think that it'd be this bad.

Whats the Remedy?

Outside of switching rosters with the Chicago Blackhawks and keeping our goalie, nothing can really be done to elevate this squad to contender status this year. The Rangers are playing a new system that doesn't highlight the strengths of 75% of the players on the roster. I think that its time to leave Tom Renney alone, but I can't help but think that this team is still "rennyized" a bit too much or as Torts says "They're soft thinkers."

Hell, they're soft players too.

I can get into the nooks and crannies of Tortorella's system but the details would get pretty indepth and would probably make you wonder why you watch hockey in the first place but his philosophy is simple.

If we have the puck, they can't score and if we have the puck more often than they do, chances are we will win.

Gee, I wonder if thats why they call it puck possession.

We're soft on the puck and don't control it. That was something that was a staple of Tom Renney's team where we'd limit the opposing team's quality scoring chances by focusing on defense. It worked out OK at first, but eventually team would find their way around it and we'd end up getting bailed out by Hank a billion times a night. I can make an argument for that type of system to succeed in the NHL today, but you'd need a really strong group of sizeable defensemen and tough forwards to win board battles most of the time. But we're pretty much in the same boat now except we don'
t have a defensive foundation to "limit" those scoring chances. Sure we're capable of winning a 7-4 game, as we saw last week, but we're not going to score 7 goals a night and when you're bordering on giving up 3 goals a night, you're not going to win consistently in this league, I don't care how good your offense is.

Now the way I see it, there are two ways that Sather could have been looking at this team coming into this season.

The first way would be: "I'll get you a superstar forward and a few other pieces, I'll get you what we need at the deadline if we need an extra push and after that we're playing with the house's money!"

That would be terrible. In fact, if he does go this route this year while we're fighting for the 8th spot Slats will have completely lost my faith in him as a GM.

The Second way would be: "Lets get a few new players in here, Give Torts some more time to evaluate what he has and break it down at the deadline if things aren't going so well."

That, however, is something I'd be more than happy to accept as a fan.

I for one, hope that Sather doesn't make any radical changes to this team this season. Unless its for a Bobby Ryan, Ilya Kovalchuk, Eric Staal type player, I hope that he stands pat with what he has until the Olympic break comes around.

Then he'll have two weeks to think about what needs to be done. The trade deadline is a few days after the Olympics wrap up, I'm not even sure if we'll play another game between our last one before the break and deadline day. If things keep going they way that they're going, I'd be willing to bet that we're probably pretty close to being 10 or more points out of a playoff spot. Even if we're within 4 points of the 8th spot, I think there is only one thing that should be on Slats mind.

Strip it down.


Its been the route he should have taken each of the last two seasons. Luckily enough for us, the Rangers 2008 draft is shaping up to be a huge success and the early returns in 2009 are pretty good as well.

But Girardi, Dubinsky, Higgins, Prospal and especially Rozsival. I'd look to move them out.

Now I know that Dubinsky's name sticks out in that group. I'm not saying that I'd move him for anyone but if the Blackhawks called and offered Andrew Ladd straight up for Dubi I'd do it. Speaking of Ladd, he is someone I would target in a trade regardless of what happens this year. Hes an RFA who will be due a raise and the Blackhawks have to pay Towes, Kane and Keith this off season so its almost a sure thing that he will be available. Hes one of those support guys we could desperately use. I'd even sign Ben Eager up to play on the 4th line next year since hes a guy who can hit, fight, skate and hes a little bit crazy, which isn't always a bad thing. With those two guys, we'd be going a long way towards addressing the size/grit/toughness issue and we won't have to break the bank to do it.

I'd look for a bunch of Hartford guys and returning pieces from the trade to fill out what opens spots are left on the Roster. I hope Evgeny Grachev and Bobby Sanguinetti are playing regular minutes with the team come March, if not earlier. I'd get Ryan McDonagh and Derek Stepan signed to an entry level deals ASAP and let them play the last 9 games of the season with the team - every little bit of experience in the NHL will help these guys next year. They'll both probably be with Hartford in the playoffs unless Wisconsin makes it far in the NCAA's, Stepan will probably spend the entire year with Hartford next year.

This goes way past anything I'm talking about here, but I'd buy Chris Drury out of the last two years of his contract. We'd save about 5 mill of the remaining 14+ hes due, but every little bit counts. Buying him out and shipping Rozsival to anywhere would give us 7.5 mill extra in cap space to resign our own players, bring in a few new faces and still have some room.

If theres one thing Sather has done well, its that he has complied a very strong group of prospects that most people consider to be in the top 5 in the league. The one thing this team hasn't had the luxury of having is a high pick where they have the opportunity to land an impact forward.

This might be there year.

As I mentioned before, the framework for a successful team is there. We have an elite sniper, we've got a plethora of young talented defensemen that should make up a very stout and productive blue line and we've had the goalie for the last 4 years. We even have a handful of other forwards who should do well to provide secondary scoring and do all those other little things that help teams win. What we've lacked is that one young impact forward who can change the face of a game.

Should the season play out the way its looking like it will and if Slats decides to sell at the deadline, we've got a shot at landing that guy.

This team is probably too good to finish last in the league but all they need to do is finish in the bottom 5 to have a shot at that top pick. Even if they don't get the top pick, the 2010 draft is extremely top heavy, and we'd have our pick at a very talented player.

It goes past wanting a player like this, we need a player like this. Having a young, cost controlled top line forward will not only give us cap relief for a few years, but it'll also allow other players on the team to play their roles. For example...

Artem Anisimov could be a top line center, but hes better served as a 2nd line center
Evgeny Grachev could be a top line sniper, but hes better served on the 2nd line with Anisimov
Ryan Callahan has played top six minutes, but hes better served on the third line.

Get a bunch of guys who are playing in roles where they belong, and you've got a team that will win more often than not. The Devils have done it forever, and they're Currently leading the conference with a whos who of nobodies on defense.

Add to that formula some high end talent at the forward positions, a deeper, more talented top 6 on defense and one of the best goalies on the planet, and you've got a team that may win a cup one day.


And all Slats has to do is Strip it down.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Friday, July 17, 2009

Way to late analysis: Scott Gomez, Tom Pyatt and Michael Busto for Chris Higgins, Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko

I'm going to go ahead and say that this trade will be the highlight of the Rangers off season. The Rangers may do something else great, like flip Michael Rozsival for a nice return, trade for Dany Heatley or some other in-his-prime premium player but this trade came as a mild surprise and the return went beyond my wildest dreams.

I had gotten word 12 hours before this trade went down that Gomez to Montreal was a legit possibility. I didn't put much stock into it but when I had read that Chris Higgins was on his way to the Rangers, I knew that it had come to fruition. I was elated with this return alone, I think Chris Higgins is going to be a tremendous fit in the Tortorella offense and he may even crack 30 goals next year as long as he stays on the ice and away from the bars. Clearing Gomez salary seemed like a pipe dream, but what happened next really made me wonder what the hell Bob Gainey was smoking out of that pipe...

The Rangers sent prospects Tom Pyatt, who figures to be a 3rd line grinder at best and Michael Busto, an ECHL player in the deal - No big deal, these guys are hardly irreplaceable. Getting Pavel Valentenko in this deal alone would have made it a steal, but Montreal also threw in top prospect Ryan McDonagh which sent the entire hockey world into a mass frenzy, or meltdown if you live in Montreal.

Ryan McDonagh is not a throw in a deal just for the fuck of it type prospect, McDonagh is a legit blue chip defensive prospect. His progression slowed a little bit last year as he had a rough 3/4ths of the season at the University of Wisconsin and a less than spectacular showing for team USA at the World Junior Championships, but he picked up his game the last 1/4th of the season and is going to be the Captain of the Badgers this upcoming season. McDonagh is a great skater who can move the puck, win the physical board battles and has great 2 way upside. if all goes well here, Ryan McDonagh is a true #1 type defensman who will look great playing next to Marc Staal. Even if he doesn't round out his offensive game, hes still a good bet to make the NHL as a reliable 3-4 guy on a contending team.

I know that Montreal has a tough time getting free agents and I'm aware that the market for centers this year outisde of which ever Sedin is a center was pretty much non existent, but throwing McDonagh in this deal just reeks of desperation and will likely come back to bite the Habs in the ass, especially if a guy like PK "twinkle toes" Subban doesn't stick in the NHL. Oh yeah, Pavel Valentenko, according to some scouts, is ready to play in the NHL right now, though he is signed in the KHL for a while. The Rangers have had no problems with drafting Russians and getting them to cross the pond so if they want Valentenko, they'll find a way to get him on the team. Valentenko is a pesky bottom paring guy who infuriates the opposition and also owns a very hard shot from the point.

Landing Gomez allowed the Habs to sign Mike Camalleri and Brian Gionta so all isn't awful in Habs land but was it really worth it to spend a collective 18.4 mill PLUS giving up Higgins, McDonagh and Valentenko to get that done? I don't think so.

Currently the Rangers defensive prospect depth chart looks like this

Michael Del Zotto (high end offensive defenseman)
Ryan McDonagh (strong defensive defensman with good offensive upside)
Bobby Sanguinetti (offensive)
Matt Gilroy (offensive)
Mike Sauer (stay at home)
Nigel Williams (crease clearing)
Tomas Kundratek (All around)
Pavel Valentenko (All around)
Corey Potter (blah)

They've already got a pure shut down type in Marc Staal and a do it all type in Dan Girardi who they've developed and graduated to the NHL. If they were to hold onto both of those guys and if only HALF of that group above makes it to the NHL, they'd be able to ice a full top 6 if they wished to do it that way.

Thank you Bob Gainey for making my year.

Rating (1-5 pucks) 4.5 pucks, with the potential to go to a million pucks.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Not So Instant Analysis: Lauri Korpikoski for Enver Lisin

Its become abundantly clear that John Tortorella intends to ice a completely different roster next year. I have to admit that I thought Lauri Korpikoski was a guy that he'd like to keep around.

Outside of Evgeny Grachev the recently drafted Chris Kreider and maybe 2008 2nd rounder Derek Stepan the Rangers do not have any young prospects in their system with top line potential. They recieved Enver Lisin, a speedy russian enigma from the Coyotes in exchange for Korpikoski. Lisin had been bounced around from the AHL to the NHL the last two years and never really got to settle in playing under Wayne Gretzky (as good as he was as a player, hes that bad as a coach.) Lisin has the high ceiling that we're looking for, but hes pretty far from reaching it. Now Korpikoski is far from a superstar, but I felt that he would become an excellent third line player who served a purpose, meaning that he wasnt a guy who'd be plugged onto a third line just because he wasn't good enough to crack a top 6, but because he does the little things right and can really be a useful piece in creating a winning team. That said, I'm ok with this move. The Rangers motto for the off season has been "bust or boom", starting with the draft, continuing with signing Marian Gaborik and taken a step further by acquiring Lisin. This trade is a watered down version of the Tyutin for Zherdev trade from last year. Both Lisin and Korpikoski are only 23 years old, so its tough to say who won this trade but if they both end up hitting their ceilings, the Rangers will come out on top here. Elite third liners are nice, top line scorers are even nicer.

Rating (1-5 pucks) - 2.5 pucks - Its pretty much a wash at this point.

Instant Analysis: Brian Fahey for Nigel Williams

When I read that this trade went down I had to do a double check - I didn't, and still don't know much about Williams but I did remember that he was a highly touted player in his draft year and some publications had him pegged to go in the first round (he fell to the 2nd round due to attitude problems.) I did a little research and found out what he was about: Big Physical defenseman (6'4" 230) with a real nasty streak, which is something that we lack on our blue line. He's also got a rocket of a shot from the point. The downsides to his game are his skating (fixable), his positioning (ehh) and some say that his effort level isn't very consistent. Still, there are times where he shows flashes of potentially being a top 4 guy but at this point I'd be fucking thrilled if he became a bottom pairing defenseman.

One really has to wonder why Colorado, a rebuilding franchise that doesn't have the luxury of great depth on the back end would trade a talented 21 year old for a 28 year old AHL Journeyman. Williams was drafted as a very raw prospect (and he still is) and he progressed enough to have a decent year in the AHL last year. Could his attitude have caused the Avs to send him out on a rail? Maybe, but one has to think that they could have at least gotten a draft pick for a kid with Williams potential, hell, Ryan Hollweg netted the Rangers a 5th round pick last year. Really questionable asset management by the Avs here.

Williams will join an already deep and talented (maybe more so than any other team in the league) group of Rangers defensive prospects and brings a nasty, physical element that they lack amongst the group. I wouldn't call this a steal yet - There is a better than average chance that Williams never sees a game in the NHL but for Brian Fahey? Its a fucking no brainer

Raiting (1-5 pucks) - 3 pucks.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Free Agent Frenzy - Winners and Losers

Yes I'm aware that there are still a good number of pretty good players left on the market, but most if not all of the top UFA's have signed somewhere. But this list may, and probably will look different when it's all said and done.

Winners:

Calgary Flames - Adding Jay Bouwmeester to a defensive core that already ices Robyn Regher, Dion Phaneuf and Cory Sarich gives the Flames the best top 4 in the league with three guys who can be #1 on almost any other team. They'll probably score less next year with the loss of Mike Cammalleri (Montreal, 5/30 mill), but they still have Jarome Iginla who is in the upper echelon of NHL forwards and Olli Jokinen who is just a cut below that group. Brent Sutter lives and dies by playing a defensive style, which will make under achieving goal tender Mikka Kipprusoff the happiest man in Alberta.

Tampa Bay Lightning - After another dismal season which was preceded by an awful offseason, the Tampa Bay Lightning finally got it right. Locking up veteran Mattias Ohlund to a cap friendly deal to mentor 2nd overall pick and fellow Swede Victor Hedman. Unlike most rebuilding teams, they have a legit #1 goalie (Mike Smith) and some very attractive assets in Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavilier who they can move for massive returns if they wish to speed up the rebuilding process.

Los Angeles Kings - Picking up Ryan Smith while unloading Tom Preissing's contract was Genius. Smith will provide leadership and add grit to the Kings top six as they prepare themselves for a run at a playoff birth. The contract they gave to Rob Scuderi was probably a bit of an overpayment, but he adds experience and depth to a young and extremely talented group of defencemen. They also have the liberty to lock up Jack Johnson if they want to.

Toronto Maple Leafs - I know, its a curious choice but Burke did exactly what he set out to do this offseason and added toughness and depth to the blue line. Signing Mike Komisarek not only makes the Leafs stronger but weakens the hated Habs and Garnett Exelby will be a very nice addition to the bottom pair of their top six. Burke can still move Tomas Kaberle for a good return this off season (and it will be a mild surprise if it doesn't happen at some point)and the Leafs are the front runners for Swedish sensation, Goaltender Jonas Gustavsson. They may not be much, if at all better next year, but this sets them up well for the future.

Anaheim Ducks - I know this happened on draft day, but the Ducks are winners for no other reason than the return they got for Chris Pronger from the Flyers. Luca Sbisa figures to be a top 4 defenseman, Joffery Lupul is a talented 2nd line winger who will be serving his second tour with the Ducks (Hes been traded for Pronger twice in his young career, how funny is that?) On top of that, the Ducks received a first round pick for 2009 (Kyle Palmieri, who was one of my favorite players in last years draft class) and 2010, so essentially, the Ducks received three first round picks (Sbisa was the Flyers top choice in 2008) and Joffrey Lupul, who himself was a top 10 pick in 2002, for an aging Chris Pronger, who has slowly started to show signs of decline the last two seasons. Grade A move by Anaheim.

New York Rangers - Am I basied? possibly (yes), but the trade of Scott Gomez to the Habs for Chris Higgins alone would have made me happy, the fact that they threw top prospect Ryan McDonagh as a sweetener made this one of my favorite trades ever, and I have no idea how Higgins is going to perform in NY or if McDonagh will ever reach half of his potential. I always felt that Scott Gomez's salary was the 2nd easiest to move in the group of Michael Roszival, Gomez, Chris Drury and Wade Redden (in that order), but I felt that the last 3 would be near impossible to move with out throwing in a first rounder. You could imagine the level of my elation when we moved Gomez with two AHL depth players for Higgins, a blue chipper and another prospect who also has NHL potential. Moving Gomez allowed the Rangers to take a risk on Marian Gaborik, who unlike the free agent signings of the past two years, will be deserving of the money that will be paid to him as long as he stays on the ice. If/When they dump Roszival's contract, they'll have even more flexibility to continue putting together a roster that may have a chance to do something pretty soon.

More than anything...

Staal, Girardi, Sanguinetti, Del Zotto, Gilroy, Kundratek and now McDonagh?!??!?

Excuse me while I go to the bathroom and rub a few out.


Losers:

Florida Panthers - First the Luongo trade and now this. Poor team has nothing to look forward to for the distant future. I know that they kept Jay-Bo around last year because they had a shot at the playoffs, but in hindsight, they would have been much better off moving him for what would have been at the least a decent return. Sometimes I wonder why there is still team in South Florida and by sometimes I mean always and by always, I mean they should be moved to Canada.

Chicago Blackhawks - They've got one of the best, if not the best, young core of players in hockey, none of whom are signed long term. They're already up against the cap and decide its a good idea to sign Marian Hossa to a long term deal. Don't get me wrong, the annual cap hit of 5.2 million for a player like Hossa is not a bad deal, but when you figure they have a ton of young players they'll need to resign in the next two years it really makes you wonder. Now its come out that their GM flubbed some paper work that may allow Kris Versteeg and Cam Barker to become UFA's...

They may have ended up losing one or both of them eventually, but they'd be losing them for nothing but cap space if this ends up happening. They better hope they can get Kane and Towes signed ASAP, because there will be a long line of GM's who will be more than happy to throw a lucrative offer sheet at either of them.

Edmonton Oilers - I think they made one of the best signings of the off season by bringing in Nikolai Khabibulin but the poor team just can't stay out of off season drama. They had to suffer through the Legend of Pronger after he decided he no longer wanted to live in Edmonton after signing a long term deal, and this year they had a deal set to bring Dany Heatley to Edmonton and after he strung them on for more than 24 hours, he nixed the trade at the last minute. I'm dubbing them the lovable loser of the off season, but a lovable loser is still a loser.

Montreal Canadiens - They've been a smaller team for quite some time and GM Bob Ganiey announced that he wanted to land a big center man this off season, that lead everyone to believe that Vincent Lecavilier may be on his way to Montreal....

Instead, they got Scott Gomez and his bloated contract. They followed up that doozy of a deal by signing Mike Cammalleri (5'9") and Brian Gionta (5'7", but I've stood next to him and hes closer to 5'5") to flank Scott Gomez (5'11") on his wings. Gomez, Cammy and Gionta are all nice complementary players who are going to be played 7+, 6 and 5 million dollars annually while being asked to form the top line of a team that is under more pressure from the media than any other team in the sport. They also added Hal Gill (who can barely skate) and Jaroslav Spacek (at almost 4 mill per year) who are hardly difference makers, though Spacek can play a little bit. All I know is that the Habs better hope that Yannick Weber and PK "twinkle toes" Subban (I'm not a fan, kid is going to get killed at the NHL level trying to pull the moves he did in Junior and he dives more than Sidney Crosby and Derek Roy combined) pan out because they're going to be hurting on D big time for years if they don't, and they may if they do anyway.

Friday, July 3, 2009

The Dany Heatley Soap Opera - Episode one

If anyone was worried that the economy would make this a dull off season, the Ottawa Senators did everything they could to absolve that notion.

Ok its completely unfair to put this on the entire Senators organization, but the blame can certainly be placed on two people, Dany Heatley for acting like a 12 year old on her period and Bryan Murray for acting like her douchebag ex-boyfriend who pretends to want the best for her.

Dany Heatley signed a six year deal for 7.5 million per last offseason to keep him in Ottawa long term, along with a no trade clause. He desides to throw a hissy fit when a rookie coach demanded a better effort from him and transofrmed what should have been a fart in the wind annoyance into one of the greatest off season soap operas we've seen the Pronger saga back in 2006 (aside: The Oilers were involved in both of these episodes, how fucked up is that?)

As far as what we've heard through the media, this is how everything transpired.

-Heatley is pissed off at coach, demands trade, gives list of teams he can be traded to (Oilers were not on that list)
- Murray meets with a few GM's at the draft, has a long talk with Glen Sather.
- Rumblings that Rangers are ready to acquire Heatley, need cap space to do it
- Rangers pull a miracle out of their collective asses and trade Scott Gomez to Montreal.

At this point, one would think that Heatley to NY would be a lock right? One of the Rangers most reputable beat writers even made an announcement that the Rangers would be acquirng Heatley later that night (after Gomez was moved.) Anyone who knows Glen Sather knows that if he can, he will try to win a trade 1,000,000,000,000,000-1. Senators and Rangers have everything worked out except Murray insists that the Rangers add Brandon Dubinsky in the deal, Sather isn't budging - Who will blink first?

Murray gets a call from Edmonton, Kevin Lowe offers him a better deal, Murray is intrigued.

This wouldn't be a Soap Opera with out a love triangle.

Commercial Break.



If I see that commercial one more time, bad things are going to happen. But anyway, here is where we left off.

- Here comes seabiscuit! The Edmonton Oilers enter the picture, offering Dustin Penner, Ladislav Smid and a personal favorite, Andrew Cogliano. Murray prefers this package more than the alleged Rangers one (Which was apparently Roszival, Zherdev and prospect Bobby Sanguinetti.) Murray accepts the deal! The Saga is OVER!

Not so fast...

I bolded No Trade Clause above because that is the thing that dropped the hammer on this whole deal. Dany Heatley had given Murray a list of teams that he would accept a trade to - The Rangers were on that list (and rumored to be at the very top of it) and the Oilers...

No where to be found.

-Murray brings the deal to the attention of Dany Heatley, he has no intention of going to Edmonton. At this point everyone in the Senators orginization wants him out, including former linemate Jason Spezza. Heater knows this and decides to sleep on it.

- Day 2 begins, no progress. We're hearing a bunch of different stuff. Day goes on, no news. Eklund reports he nixes the trade, I think hes going to Edmonton, Eklund says hes going to Edmonton, I think he nixes the trade. Eklund says...

Wait... Why the hell was I listening to Eklund?

- Midnight looms and still no word. The tension is building, most of Canada is already tired of this story and just want it to be over. Heater didn't oblige, he nixed the deal....

And thats how Dany Heatley offically became the most hated man in Canada.

Now Heater is deserving of a lot of the hate hes been getting, but How Bryan Murray gets a break here is beyond me. Here you have a GM who fielded an offer from a team that Heatley did NOT have on his list of teams hed accept a trade to, went through with the deal and expected it to all work out. I know that Heater wants out of Ottawa, but he has the right to choose where he wants to go since MURRAY'S DUMB ASS GAVE HIM THE NTC! The fact that Heatley even considered the move says something to me (that Ottawa is a fucking shit show right now.) Murray pretty much ruined what ever chance he had at getting back a reasonable deal for Heatley, and I'm going to laugh when he gets back a modest return for Heatley...

Roszival, Zherdev and a 2nd round pick, you heard it here first! (e5)

Up next: Episode two, because you know this shit isn't over.