Had some down time today and did a little fantasy GM for next year.
here is how i break it down if my name was glen sather, based on what the cap is now, whether it goes down and how much we'll see...
10 players on the current roster are under contract for next season for a grand total of 42.059 million dohlers.
Scott Gomez=7.357
Chris Drury=7.050
Henrik Lundqvist= 6.875
Wade Redden=6.5
Michal Rozsival=5
Markus Naslund=4
Sean Avery=1.9
Dan Girardi=1.55
Aaron Voros=1
Marc Staal=.827
My plan would be Voros to Hartford unless you can find someone to take him. Trade Rozy because he is the only tradable guy from those top 6. That would free up 6 million total which brings us now to $36.059 million.
Now lets take care of the more important RFAs first.
Nikolai Zherdev is currently making $2.5....say he gets $3.5 to be fair.
Lauri Korpikoski is currently making $1.018...say he gets about $1.1.
Fredrik Sjostrom is currently making $.840...say he gets $1.0
Brandon Dubinsky is currently making $.633...bump that up to at least $2.5
Ryan Callahan is currently making $.575...same as dubi...$2.5
That now brings us to...$46.659 with just 13 players
the UFAs:
Derek Morris is currently making $3.917....adios, nothing against him but there is no room for a 6th defenseman making almost 4 mil
Nik Antropov is currently making $2.05...I say he gets a minimum of $4 unless he goes open market i bet someone takes him for more.
Paul Mara is currently making $1.95...he seems to want to stay and will take less like last year
Stephen Valiquette is currently making $.75...he takes the same or less or he's gone, you can get plenty of backups to play 10-15 games a year for less
Blair Betts is currently making $.615...he seems to be getting noticed around the league more and i say someone pays him over a mil and he's gone, if not $1 for him to stay.
Colton Orr is currently making $.538..600k for him no problem.
that now gives us $54.959 for 18 players
add michael sauer & Corey Potter as the 5th & 6th d-man to bring it to 20 players and $56.349
Of course you might have sanguinetti at .883, grachev at .875, anisimov at .850, and delzotto
so i guess we'll see what happens
Id do anything I could to move Naslund. He has a NMC so that could really be the big factor that causes him to stick in NY but hopefully Slats can convince him to waive it. Finding a team that wants him is probably the bigger issue, but I'm sure someone out there is looking for 20 goals. His contract isn't a must to clear this year, but It'd be really nice if we could move him.
Rozsival shouldn't be that tough to move. I'll take what ever anyone is willing to give up for him as long as little to no salary is coming back the other way.
I don't think Dubinsky or Callahan will get 2.5. A good comparable for Dubi would be someone like Alex Burrows (4 years, 8 mill) and I'd venture to say that Cally would probably be signed for about the same if not a little bit less (for all the talk of how big of a slump Dubinsky is/was in, hes still out producing Callahan points wise this year.) 4 year contracts for both would be great.
I take Zherdev to arbitration with the risk of losing him to RFA/KHL. I'd do this for the sole reason that I don't think he will get too big of a raise and Id say there is a good chance he wouldn't se a cent over 3 mill. If a team wants to give him an offer sheet I wouldn't match it, I'll take the first and third round pick - It'd probably come from a team that isn't that good to begin with. I'm on the same page as you with the other RFA's.
For the UFA's.
Antropov is the one MUST sign on the list IMO. That may change over the next few weeks/months but from the way I see it, I do everything I can to keep him. I'd try to get him at 3.5 per a year but the 4 you listed him at is probably more realistic.
I'd bring back Mara at the same rate or a slight raise from what hes being paid this year (not a cent over 2.1) if not I'll let both he and Morris walk. There are going to be plenty of solid bottom paring guys out there who can be had for less (Steve Montador would be a great replacement, perhaps even an upgrade)
I have a feeling both Betts and Orr will be gone. Vally will be here as long as Benoit Allaire is here.
Now here is what Id like to see happen, and its atleast some what realistic, though some things would have to break right - basically its pretty optimistic but not impossible.
Lets assume for a second that Rozsival and Naslund are moved with no salary coming back (9 mill cleared) and none of our UFAs or RFA's have been resigned - as you stated we'd stand with 8 players signed for a total of 31.059, giving us some decent room to work with.
Add Dubinsky at 2 mill
Add Callahan at 2 mill
Korpikoski at 1.1 mill
Sjostrom at 1 mill
Thats 6.1 mill and the salary is up to 37.159 for 12 players
a bottom paring guy (Mara, Montador, etc) is signed at 2 mill per a year
Both Sauer and Del Zotto make the team next year (.883+.625)= 1.508
The defense is set at an addition of 3.508, bringing the total to 40.667 for 15 players.
We'll give Antropov his 4 here, and re up orr and vally at .600 and .750.
We're up to 46.017 for 18 players.
As it stands our lines would look like this
?-Gomez-?
Antropov-?-Drury
Avery-Dubinsky-Callahan
Sjostrom-?-Korpikoski
Staal-Girardi
Redden-Sauer
UFA-Del Zotto
Vally
Lundqvist
Ex Fwd - Orr
We have about 8-10 million (depending on what happens with the cap) to fill 4 spots and here is where it gets interesting. Those ?'s left on Gomez's wings were left there purposely, ditto shifting Drury to wing. I'll do two hypothetical lineups after im done filling in the spots.
Under Tortorella, the 4th line barely plays any minutes and as good of a penalty killer as betts is, its pointless to keep him around just for that reason alone. You can fill that spot with a number of kids in Hartford who can play there for around .575 (Tom Pyatt?)
Total 46.592
Grachev finishes this year on a torrid pace and makes the team next year (.833) and a total of 47.425.
Artem Anisimov, who is a fantastic face off guy slides into the second line center roll. Its also possible that the dude ends up playing on the third line. I kind of worry about how much of a chance Tortorella will give him since he isn't a very fast skater but he does great work down low and his size should open up even more space for Drury. Anisimov is due .850
48.275
Now we're left with some options here. We can re sign Zherdev at the 3 mill hes probably going to get in arbitration and finish with a total cap of slightly over 50 mill, which gives us a ton of flexibility and hope that he finally puts it together...
Or we can really roll the dice and give Gomez another fast, high scoring winger by signing Gaborik for one year (he won't get more than a 2 year deal I assure you) at 7 mill, which would bring our cap up to 55.275 giving us virtually no room. What I do know is that Gaborik, Gomez, Grachev would give Gomez two guys who can keep up with him (they're both faster than him North-South) and shoot the puck on his wings, a deadly fast north south line that would be hell to play against. I'd bite the bullet and even give Gaborik a 2 or 3 year deal if the Rangers are set on buying Redden out after the 2009-10 season.
Hypothetical lineups
Grachev-Gomez-Gaborik
Antropov-Anisimov-Drury
Avery-Dubinsky-Callahan
Sjostrom-Pyatt-Korpikoski
Ex. Orr
Staal-Girardi
Redden-Sauer
Mara/Montador/UFA-DelZotto
Lundqvist
Vally
Or...
Grachev-Gomez-Gaborik
Antropov-Drury-Avery
Dubinsky-Anisimov-Callahan
Sjostrom-Pyatt-Korpikoski
Everything else would be the same.
Audio - Why I want to sign Gaborik, This sort of ties the whole post together so give it a listen!
